This is a bit of a musing. I might get censure by this.
How bad the COVID-19? I am not a scientist or what they call it an epidemiologist.
We know it is bad when stores were closed and we get sent home. It has been more than 4 months now for my area. 6 months since it was first arrived in the US.
We saw other countries dealing with it, first China, then Korea, Italy and Spain before it got to the US. At that time it was worrying, but we still went in with doing our thing. Ad a matter of fact, I went and ran a marathon in California, around the time the first outbreak started in the US. And of course we blew it. At first, it was one or two states. But then the virus spreads uncontained to the rest of the country. By March 7, I remember clearly because a few days before, we have our first case in the washington DC area, MD, DC, and Virginia. I was worry whether my ultra marathon would be canceled that Saturday. Our race director decided to go on with the race.
Following next few days as cases “skyrocketed”, many businesses started closing and we were in a “lockdown”. The politicians didn’t want to use the word lockdown because we do not want to be like Italy or China. We were urged to stay at home.
The next few months, things started to be better. Most of the cases were happening in New York. Most of other states were spared. We slowly reopened.l businesses.
I live in Northern Virginia, Washington, DC suburb. Life has for most part returned to a bit more normal, as we are in the phase 3 of the reopening. My company is still has the work-from-home policy.
Now we are seeing an uptick in the infection number. Many southern states are entering a hotzone, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, Texas, and many others.
Couple weeks ago, I traveled to Atlanta. There were concerned that I was heading into a hot zone, where cases were not as low as here where I am.
The uptick of cases bring to light the flashpoint – whether to close/revert the reopening decision, or keep going forward with the reopening.
Our nation is still as divisive as when we first entered this crisis. Many are in favor of reopening, such as having children back in the classroom. Many people – mostly politicians still arguing whether wearing masks is necessary. It is like a no-brainer for many people, yet there is a strong resistant in making this a mandatory in public places.
So here I am, I am planning a second trip to Atlanta. It seemed on my first trip there, I survived! The question is how scary/dangerous this COVID? What is statistics? What does it mean to me?
I get it that there are people who for “everyone stay put for 2-3 weeks, listen to the health official and we bend the curve”, However, it has not worked in the US. Why? Because people wouldn’t listen (including our top officials).
The question is how serious it is? Are people overeacting?
So I was trying to find some metrics to see what is safe/not safe. You would think there would be something like this available right? Some type of geiger counter like for radiation, but for COVID-19.
So unable to find any, I think New York is the most sensible state. Yes, they had a big problem before, but their ways work. They put out one for their travel restriction that anyone coming into New York is from a state that has more than 10 infections per 100000 people, should go into a 2 week quarantine.
By this standard, by now majority of the states (22), are on the quarantine list (I know, it is still under 25, not a majority yet).
Is this standard too strict? I was trying to determine should I travel to Atlanta at the end of August? Based on this alone, the answer is no. When I was in Atlanta at the begining of July, Georgia had 27 daily infections per 100000 people. Now it is over 40 and is continue climbing up. A few states Florida, Texas, Arizona are between at 40-50. How bad is it?
I was thinking where is the red line? What is the maximum possible? Is it 3 times that or 5 times that? I think I would probably be reluctant to travel if it is at 50-60 mark. 80-90? 150? Any state ever reaches 150? Will we have a real shut down if we get to 350? At what point where the system will become ‘critical’ or uncontaineable?
Those states having over 40 daily infections/100000 are in serious problem? They are saying it is not as bad as what New York was. Georgia doesn’t think so. The governor is sueing cities mayors over issuing mask mandate in the mist of this! This is on another level of insanity. Florida yesterday implemented curfew. Arkansas announced mask requirement (one of the states that was against having one).
All eyes are currently on the southern states Florida, Texas, Arizona, California, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.
Personal experience is when I was in Georgia, man, people there were not that worry anout having a mask on. I was seemed like an alien for going into a store with my mask. I was thinking, this is a hot zone, yet no one seems to be much concern about it.
Who to listen? Our president or the health officials? I love to listen when New York Governor laid it out. President is name calling. Is it the left trying to make the situation seem more dire than it is so that the President would lose his reelection?
This blog was going to go on further on the number crunching that I have been doing last two weeks, but this has gotten too long, I will do it maybe on another day.
P.S. I self-censored myself, so no number will be shown. I was going to delve into a lot of numbers. 🙂