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  • [666] Naked Bavarian 40M & Reston 10

    I’ve been quite busy (and lazy) lately, but finally got a chance to do something I like a lot this weekend, and that is racing!

    Last weekend (two weekends ago by time this is published): Helped out at the Reverse Ring 70.  Nothing much to share on here. I loved to be out on the Massanutten trail.  It was tiring but happy at the same time to see runners reaching their goals.

    I helped out at the event for two years in a row.  I needed it for my Vermont 100 volunteering hours.  Hopefully, next year I will get to run the Reverse Ring.  It is a hard a 70 miler in the winter with minimal supports.  The only way to get a spot on the start list is first to finish the summer version called the Ring (from the movie/book the Lord of the Ring).  It is exactly the same trail/course but in the opposite direction.  Some say the summer version is the harder one. I think the winter one is harder because of the cold temperature. 

    This weekend, I did a relatively cold run of 40 miler called Naked Bavarian (see last year’s report 2024).  This is a similar race I ran in December called the Naked Nick 50k.  We ran on the opposite side of the Blue Marsh Lake at Leesport, PA.

    February version is definitely tougher due to the distance, cold temperature and more elevation gains (4000 ft for the 40 miler).  We had also shorter time being available, about 10.5 hours to finish. I did it in 09:42 hh:mm, meaning tighter cutoffs, and so required us to run a bit faster. I had my doubts if I could finish it.

    While a 50k is a normal distance, a 40 miler is an unusual distance to race.  I like to race in whatever the distance, usually the longer the better. 

    I am sure the race director could have made it a 50k (30 miles) or extend it to a true 50 mile race. But 40 it was.  So it was a bit difference in term of pacing and timing.

    It was a two loop course.  My first loop, I ran in 4:30, a good pace for me, 13.5 min pace (and 7 mins faster than last year).  My second loop was way slower coming in at 05:15 (hh:mm), at a 15:45 min pace, moving 2-3 mins slower per mile.

    I was hoping to finish under by 4:44 pm, a play on my friend’s bib number of 222, but I knew it was not possible.  At 2:22 pm, I was near 27 mile, maybe at mile 26. By mile 30, the time was 3:33 pm, and I had 10 miles left to do it in about an hour, I would have to run in a 6:66 (~7) min per mile pace.  I was probably moving about 15 min pace by then. At 4:44, I was still about 2 miles away. So, 5:15 was a more realistic goal, no 5:55 or 6:06.

    The whole day, I thought I was the last runner.  And I was probably the last except people started dropping after halfway.

    Then I was able to pass a few runners after the first loop.  I became friend with Mark, whom I ran with for the last two hours after mile 10.  I was not sure if I could finished the first loop before 12:30 pm (5 hrs), by the cutoff, and he predicted we we were on pace for 4:30 for the first loop.  I came in exactly at noon.  We went out together. Later, I passed Mark after two miles.

    Other thing I like was the lake was frozen over, even though temperature wise was around 40-45.  I ran in shorts.  I saw a lot of male runners in shorts so I braved the cold and wore shorts.  My upper body though I put on a long sleeves and a t-shirt.  I packed a windbreaker and by second loop I had to add a second long sleeves because the temperature was dropping back to low 30s and wind was picking up.

    My friend had the warm car ready when I finished so I did not shiver too much. But it was cold. What a joy.  We stopped for a steak dinner at an Outback.  Yay food. And afterward was a sleepy ride back home.

    Then the next day, we ran the Reston 10 Miler.  We (or rather I) planned exactly that to run fast on tired feet.  Not sure if this is the correct way, but I felt fast through out the 10 mile race.  I felt I was steady gaining on people.  I was averaging 11:05 (mm:ss) pace, and finished at a time of 1:50:42 (h:mm:ss).

    I needed more fast runs (fast but on tired legs) like this to train up for the Old Dominion 100.

    Then also, we added maybe another 7-10 miles brisk walk at the Manassas Battlefield.  My legs were too sore to run by then. We then had Pho for lunch and another sleepy ride home.  I slept for 16 hours till the next day.  It was an exhausting weekend, just the way I like it.

    Some asked if I keep a daily record of my training plans for my big races.  Nope, this blog is it.

    Other news: my friend Jeremy finished Swammie Shuffle 200.  It was a race I wanted to do myself for couple years back as my first 200.  So possibly next year, we will see me there.

  • [665] a race jitter

    (old write up) My experience at the Vermont race is brought up from time to time in conversation.  I found an old unpublished post in the draft folder and since I have nothing to share this week, so I’ll post this for this week.

    The night before my trip to Vermont 100,  I was anxious about the up coming trips to Vermont and Wasatch than I was for the Western States 100.

    I didn’t want to jinx it.  Last year, I had a difficult time to finish a 100 mile race under 30 hours.  This year, I am 3 for 3 already (C&O, Old Dominion, and Western States). This weekend was my final one.

    I tried to tell others of my fears but their words of comfort such as “don’t worry” did little for me.

    I needed to see it in my mind eye that I could do it.  For this race, I could not see it.  The course was a mystery to me beforehand. I had no elevation charts or maps or youtube videos to follow and prerun the race in my head.

    My Strategy: The whole course has a lot of up-and-down hills. Elevation should be similar to Western States or Old Dominion.  I hoped for a fast course, since there seems to be a lot of it being on road pavement.

    I did well at OD100 because I had two buddies who though we ran at the back of the pack, but ran a steady near sub 24 pace with me.  We were maintaining a 14 min pace.

    If I could repeat that kind of performance of not being shaken by many faster runners in the first 50 miles, I should be able to finish the race.

    At C&O100, I had a slower friend at the beginning, pacing together. I was not panicking when I went slower than everyone.  Later though in the second half, I could run a bit faster to even it out.

    The key is to pretend the first half is not important and go really slow.  We all know this, but to do it during a race is hard when everyone guns out the gate and you feel you too could keep up with them. 

    It is hard to not let the crowd get 2-4 or even 10 miles ahead. 10 miles ahead might be a bit too much, but usually if the course feels empty, I start to panick of being too far back.

    At C&O and at OD100, I had two good people who knew what they were doing and so I did not panick.

    Sleeping arrangement:  I planned of sleeping at the start.  So I could roll out of bed and run.  At first, I planned to sleep in my car, but my friend planned to be in it since she would be starting later than me.  I am hoping for a clear sky and no rain, bugs, or dew, so I could sleep outside. 

    When my friend said she was going to carpool with me, I was wondering how that works whether she would also sleeping under the stars.

    Ended up, she planned staying at a motel. So I would be back to cowboy camping.

    I hoped it should be fun.  I never really did a cowboy camping before.  I did it couple times on the mountains, but not for an important race like this.  I felt shy if people stare at me. 

    We had 450 runners and many too chose camping.  They would be in their fancy tents and here I was laying on the grass suntanning or moon tanning through the night.

    I was not bringing a tent because I did not plan to check my bag and so it would difficult to bring a tent onto a plane as a carry-on. 

    If only they make tent rods out of fiberglass instead of metal (which I think they do, but not my tent). Still I don’t have enough space for a tent. It is the same dilemma when I go camping, certain things have to left out.  I have done slack packing (minimalist backpacking) before, so I know ditching a tent is sometimes a hard choice, but it got to be done.

    A benefit of not having a tent is to save that extra hour of setting up and putting away.  Many people don’t realize how long it takes to put away the tent (you have to clean, dry, fold before packing up).  Usually, if we go camping, we have to put in an hour from waking up, to time of departure, for packing away.  Yes, I have done rush job of couple minutes of collapsing a tent and stuff everything in sack and go, but that is only for extreme circumstances (like one time we thought we were being danger).

    At my first MMT100, I overslept, so I crawled out from the tent and ran to the start with only couple minutes spared before the race.  Luckily, the tent was still there when I finished the race and it didn’t get blown away.  I don’t like to leave my tent out in the sun for long either because the sun would damage the plastic linings and so it becomes less water resistant. When you are late, you got to do what you got to do and not pack things up.

    (update/ps) All these plannings were moot because I missed my flight and I ended up catching a ride with a friend to Vermont. We barely were able to sleep at all before the 4 AM start.  We had to leave the hotel by 2 AM and we just arrived after midnight. It was fun to look back.

  • [664] Holiday Lake 50k+++

    Holiday Lake.  I did this race couple years ago, in Feb 2023 (report), as part of a long President Day’s weekend fun.

    This year it was a Holiday Lake three-plus- plus-plus, because the trail/course was extra long.  I think it ended up like 33-34 miles for a 50k. And also, I did 3 events like last time. Triple crown.

    A friend recommended me to run this race back in 2019, when I was still new to trail running. 

    I was out training on my favorite course at the Signal Knob one afternoon.  It was the only course at the time where I knew I could get some decend hill runs.

    I ran into a trail runner G (an amazing dude).  I did not know who he was at the time. 

    As usual I started talking to people during the run. I asked what trail races he would recommend.  He rolled off his tongue, Highland Sky, Promise Land and Holiday Lake. So far I only have done Holiday Lake because it have been very hard in getting in them (I don’t sign up in time).

    He said, tell them his name and the RD would know him. 

    At the time I was scare of running in the winter.  Holiday Lake takes place in February.  So the race was not one I was going to run.

    Then of course in 2023, I forgot about it and signed up.  What exactly prompted me to sign up and run was lost in history.  I thought that was a once and done thing.  I admired people who done it year after year.

    There are too many things going on in February for me.  I have the MMT training and the BBR training every year for the last three years. It was almost every weekend full.  And there is the C&O training, or the O Dominion training.  I just did not want to add on a Holiday Lake too.  And TWOT too, but that is for the future.  All those events fighting for one precious weekend.

    Originally, I chose the MMT training run over the Holiday Lake because MMT course is free to run. A lot of my mighty trail friends too prepare for their MMT race would run in it.  I would not want to miss it because I love to be with them. This year though, I will be volunteering at the MMT 100 race, so missing the MMT training would not be too big a deal.

    But Holiday Lake seems to be important for my other friend.  I don’t have to be there but it would be nice if I go.  There’s a chance to camp too the night before the race and night after the race and as well as the third night.  It is a long holiday so in theory we could run on Monday as well to make it into a big weekend fun.

    This year, I took a half day off so I could get to the pre race briefing early.  As usual, Dr. H would be giving a talk on trail running. I did not know him in the past but he is a local legend.  He set the first FTK on some of very long trails around the nation in his younger days.  I wanted the free pizza dinner too offered before the talk. I kicked myself for missing the talk and pizza last time I race at the Holiday Lake.

    As it turned out, due to traffic and various reasons (I did not plan for stopping for dinner or gas), we missed the opening ceremony.  We should have left in the morning to avoid the afternoon rush hour traffic.

    Instead of camping out, we stayed at a hotel for all three nights. Uff-dah! The weather was cold, so it was a good call.  I could have still camped out if were alone, but did not want others to suffer with me.  It was raining heavily as well on Saturday, so a hotel would allow us to dry our stuff. 

    The race itself was good. It was a hard run but was not too hard (I barely finished, with a time of 07:45).

    It was good I  went for a prerace training run a couple weeks ago, so the course was still fresh in my mind. I did not get lost except for a small section, maybe losing 5 minutes.

    It was cold as usual for February here, being in the winter. By noon, rain came down. First was drizzling then it was a steady ‘light’ rain.  It didn’t seem light to me.  I was drenched head to toes. We were glad the race was not canceled, that being snow was originally in the forecast.  Some might have preferred snow but here, if it snows, it would also become icy.

    The first loop, I came in at 03:30, which was a bit slower than last time (I think I had 3:10-3:15 previously). The course was maybe a mile longer since a bridge was washed out.  So the slower time was expected and understandable.

    The second loop really hit me hard.  I knew I was totally out of shape and ran too hard in the beginning. I was breathing hard.  I was trudging through the muddy trail.  Rain came.  Some runners caught up to me. 

    Wilbur, the guy who ran it 23 times was running with me. His friend Marshall caught up.  Marshall and I ran the Old Dominion last year and shared 35 miles of trail.  I think it was closer to 50 miles. Anyway, we chatted and I listened to him chatted away with Wilbur and Alyson.

    They finished maybe 5 minutes ahead of me.  At one point on the power line trail (Tailor trail), someone put ribbons leading to an unknown trail. I think it is likely course vandalism to purposefully confused runners.

    Marshall called out to me as I was going the wrong way but I saw other runners going down the wrong trail and I followed them. Few minutes later, they turned back around.  I did too.  Marshall and Wilbur were on the correct path.  I lost a precious time here.

    My legs were tired.  Trails were muddy, slick and wet.  I managed to finish.  My friend brought me two hamburger and I gladly ate them and I changed into dry clothes at the same time.  I was shivering for a long time.

    It was the end of the day. I was glad to be back at the hotel for a good night sleep.  We ate the left-overs from the day before, but I was still hungry, so we went across to a gas station, Sheetz or Wawa for ramen but we could only find the instant mac-and-cheese.  I had spicy Buffalo Mac & Cheese. Not recommended. So I ate my friend’s portion too.

    ****

    Farmville.  The next day was also raining.  We planned to run 10 miles on the High Bridge Trail nearby (in Farmville, VA).

    High Bridge, mile 0.0. I ran (walked) with an umbrella

    I love this bridge.  I did another 50k race here back in who knows when (report).  The High Bridge 50k race is no long being held.

    Why it is called High Bridge? I think it was Virginia highest bridge back when people still used railroad.  Now it is just a rail-to-trail path. We think it is about 50k in length.

    We ran 5 miles out and 5 miles back to Farmville.  Some notable events were a tree fell on the path while we were running back to town. It was very windy. There was a high wind advisory. We also saw a group of Longwood’s college students running in the rain too.  We initially thought we were the only ones out there.

    ****

    MMT. The weekend could not be complete without a time on the MMT (Massanutten Mountain Trail).  Initially, we planned to go to Dragon Tooth on the Appalachian Trail near Roanoke, but the drive there and back would take significant time.  I didn’t think we have the time.

    I’d rather want to do the MMT3 training loop, but in the end we settled for MMT 1 training run.  We did a out-and back from Woodstock to Edinburg Gap. This would allow us to be back at home before nighfall.

    It was still a cold day but I enjoyed being on my favorite course any time of the year.

    Sunday, we made our way to Woodstock.  At the time, we had not finalized our plan yet.  We passed Harrisonburg, then New Market and Edinburg.  We then continued to Woodstock. There we had coffee while waiting to check in to our room.  It was too cold to camp out that night.  Earlier, we had the best meal of the weekend at Cracker Barrel. So we did not need to eat that night. I was still drained from the run the day before. 

    In theory, there was still plenty of day light left to do some hiking around but wind really picked up in the afternoon and it was too cold to be outside. Hotel it was.

    Woodstock Tower.  The following day, we had a choice to run up on Woodstock on foot or drive up.  To prepare for my race for Old Dominion, running up on the road is preferred. However, I really did not want to wake up that early to try.

    We ended driving up.  I kind of expect the gate to be closed. Indeed it was.  So we drove back down and went the other way by going around to Strasburg and passed the Signal Knob on Fort Valley Road.  I drove based on memory of having crewed someone back in 2023 for the Old Dominion race. Luckily, I found the Woodstock Tower Road from the other side and we drove on up.  It took us a good chunk of the morning, so we started around 8:30 (late).  The temperature was still very cold. It was good the sun was up and was sunny.

    We did 14 miles that day.  7 miles out and 7 miles back.  The ground was frozen, but overall it was a very nice day.

    Normally during training run, we rarely wanted to leave the trail to check out the Tower.  Today was the day we had time.  Actually, it was too cold and I just wanted to go home, but my friend wanted to climb up.  Some ruffians who came before us back in January drew some PG-13 images on the floor. 

    Woodstock Tower, East and West.  Bottom is the hand glider launch point. 
    [unsensored] We assumed it is a still life painting of pears, banana and apples or oranges.

      Night. We ended the final day for a nice bowl of tofu soup amd some ginger tea to close the day.  I preferred rice tea.

  • [663] Icy 8 at Lake Anna and For the Love of it 10K

    I did a perfunctory showing at the Icy 8 this year.  I was hoping to put in a 50k but came out just about 4 miles short.  I ran 28 miles. 

    I ran it last year (report). We had the same format, 8 hours, 4 mi loop or 8 mi loop to choose from.  We could run as many loops as we want until the time is up.

    I finished with 3 long loop and a short loop with 20 minutes left.  There was not enough time to do a 2-mi exit loop.  I could have been close if I did it.

    My take of the day was sharing the trail of two runners who are heading to Western States 100.  I thought they were the same person until after the race and found they were not the same. My goofball.

    Also during the race, I was watching the Wasatch’s lottery drawing.  Two of  people I know got in.  My other friend though did not get in.  I was rooting for him though.  I might still end up going to Wasatch this year to either crew or pace.  I would definitely love to step on those mountains again.

    My focus was not there at Icy 8.  So I lost a lot of time listening to the Wasatch drawing.

    My feet and fitness too were not there for me to push hard enough to finish up four long loops.

    The day was good and sunny.  A good day.  We had mud too, lot of it. 

    We saw many familiar faces.  I wish I could stay longer, maybe to camp overnight in one of the cabins or camp sites.

    We were rushing back to a club event in the evening.  Yours truly had to be there to receive his award for runner of the year.  I felt embarrass when I realized I was up against truly great runners in our club. 🤭

    The next day though was my favorite event, a local 10K called For the Love of It, which I have been taken part almost every year.  It was the location where I started running, 8 years ago.

    It brought back a lot of memories.  I love the sunrise.  The fast run and the local community.  The photos were free.  I have not done a short race like this for a long time because last year I was focusing on the longer ultra trail races.

  • Day662 Midlife crisis

    [updating a post written in 2023, might not have published back]

    oh no…January 2, I don’t have a new year resolution this year. I will resolve to be purposeful!

    This probably will be a weird post. I haven’t figured out what I want to do for this year.

    Last time I was in this state was back in 2016. I ended up buying a truck, fell in love with a woman, and somehow running a marathon (actual a 5k, but it led to signing up for a marathon). Then ended up going up a mountain like Moses, experienced a life changing event at a burning bush. No not like Moses, I did not lead his people out of Egypt afterward. I’m kind of seeing myself doing it again now.

    I still drive a truck! Loving it. People I knew started calling me Bear for my outdoors adventure image though I am nowhere near the macho-ness.

    Here am I now, what should I do?? I did all those things because they were new and hard and adventureous. They are no longer new to me now. I still love to spend time on the mountains.

    I am not into creating a new branding of myself. Usually though soul seeking time would result in remaking myself like back in 2016. Maybe I am pivoting to something new.

    I think it comes down to what is worthwhile to do. This time I think would be less dramatic. Actually, I kind of remake myself the past year.

    I need to realign my mission goal again. (I did during 2023, but it was not published).

    I still want to run across the continent. I do want to travel more. I do want to race more.

    The last few years were fun. I got myself to be an ultra marathon runner. And claimed the title of runner of the year in my running club.  It was fun. It took me longer to get where I am. I am still not very good at it but I can say, distances no longer scare me. Anything under 100 is doable. Anything over 100 is probably doable with some planning. The mystery is no longer there.  I am itching to try a 200 miler.

    It opens door to many races. What I really want to try is the Atacama Desert Crossing. I want to try some multi-day running adventures.

    Couple friends wanted to do Vol State or HOTS. Someone suggested the trilogy. I want to do the Tuscarora trail or something similar like the Mid state trail. Here I am dreaming.

    *Rim to Rim of the Grand Canyon. While driving up to Pennsylvania, my friend mentioned something she wanted to do is to hike from Rim to Rim of the Grand Canyon. I did something similar (I only hiked down to the River and back up) and at the time I was not an ultra runner yet. I don’t know if I can fit that into this year. It would be dope if I can do it. Saying this, because I would go just for a hike, even though truly I wanted to run across the Canyon and back in one day.

    Another thing I want to do this year is the Sierra Club One Day Hike (100K). I was interested in this before I was an ultra runner. At the time Hiking one day from DC to Harper Ferry seems interesting because it was impossible for me at the time. Of course if I get accepted, I would run this thing instead of hiking. Probably will take me 16 ish hours.

    I need to make more friends who is into what I am into. Meeting Caroline was something like that. We are both seeking to cross off 50 states marathon. She is like 10 states ahead in 2023. And she did it, finished all fifty states.

    Funny nothing much has changed since 2023.  My goals still are same today as two years ago. A lot of changes are in the air though, vaguely, my career, having a new roommate, moving to a new place, starting a new relationship, and future. Only till 2026 will we know.  My life might turn upside down.  I might have to put aside my personal goals for something bigger. Well I don’t have to have everything together. Once😀😛 I have a clearer picture, I will post again like I did in 2023, likely though it will be 2026 or 2027.  As I get older, pace slow down. I can’t accomplish as much as before, so 2023 goals are still 2025-2026 goals.

    A couple more resolutions

    *Be laser focused

    *overcoming my fear of starting new things

    My previous goals

    1. 2023 published version

    2. 2024 goals

    Last year, I was aiming for finishing the race called Western States.  It was everything to me.  This year, I get to cheer other people doing it. I really want to do it again or to be there.

  • [661] Happy Lunar New Year

    Really nothing to post.  Not much runing is going on in my life.  I love to write race reports but on everything else is plain boring.  I am just going through the motion in life, doing the same thing every day. Putting this post out to say I’m okay. This is actually an old post from October that I did not publish, but still applicable.

    My legs are still kind of hurt.  I could not run at my full capacity.  But also mostly is a mental. If I want to run, my legs would heal faster.  Really? Usually. I guess it is good to let it slowly heal. It has been two weeks since my last race.

    News.  I got through the waitlist for Rim to River 100 but decided not to run it. As much as I was glad the wait is over, but also I knew the race was not for me.

    There’s not much a desire to do the race at this time. There’s always next year.

    The Grindstone’s post race funk is strong.  A General lack of motivation and will to run. I tried to tell myself I can’t rest on my accomplishments. I don’t. I never run for the praises of my peers but because I felt like it. Grand slam was just a title. I did it because I like the races and the challenge. I will consider another grand slam run if the opportunity presents itself. 

    Something that lifted me up.  A friend did a 50 miler this weekend on a similar course as the Wasatch Front, from East Mountain to Bountiful. It seems so long ago when I was there. I would definitely want to do it next year.  It is in Utah but I felt the race worth the trip.  Where can you spent 15-16 hours doing a 50 miler?  I think that is a fast time for the course.  It probably would take me like 17-18 to go the same distance there. Relatively for my age and condition. (The race is DC Peaks for future signup, and I signed up, probably will be my first out of state 50 miler)

    A few more races popped up this weekend.  I have not had the money or motivation to do them. Definitely I would like to do it again like last year. 

    One of the races was the Blue Ridge Roanoke Double.  I ran the marathon twice in one day. It was last year but seems like ages ago!

    The fun thing is how to avoid scheduling conflict.  There are so many races I want to do but can’t do all of them. In my mind, I kind of know which ones I want to do, but it is so tempting in signing up for all of them. (I took care of the race scheduling until summer.)

    Enough said.  Most important factor is money.  I have to be careful since my bank account is like only a third of last year. Currently can only affort about 2-3 races for the whole year. My budget is probably even lower. I kept thinking back to my former office manager who told me don’t go starving to do the things you like. True. It has not come to that point yet.

    What I have been doing the last few weeks:

    -Played in the snow

    -Went to Charleston (for the first time)  (possible will make a trip again there myself next year, either running a marathon or an ultra)

    -Did a training run for Holiday Lake and is the reason my legs are trashed for a few days

  • [660] some boring stuff

    Disclaimer, I am not a professional financial adviser so don’t take this post or any my opinions on financial matters as anything you can rely on for your own financial planning.

    I am about to dive deep into some numbers on retirement planning because it is a topic dear to my heart (other than running) and recently I had a flash of insight that prompted me to write this. I have been thinking about it for several years.

    I started planning for my retirement when my manager told me about the company’s retirement matching about 15 years ago and I have been consistently putting money in.

    Initially, I did not know how much to put in but over time, started enjoy everything on the topic and developed my own opinion. (see my second post on the topic at the end of 2021, where I was trying to figure out over how much to contribute, now I have mature much).

    I faced with the same question everyone is facing.  How much should one contribute?  Of course, there’s kind of maximum (capped by law for 401k and one’s income) that almost no mortal can reach.

    I know if I “max” my contribution, I would be in good hand. But what about minimum?  Zero is an answer but we want a partical answer, a sweet spot.  This is a much harder question to answer.

    (1) How much do I need to save now annually? (also how much I need to save by now is a good question too). There are some online guides, of how many times one’s salary by certain age.

    (2) Related to this is how much I need to save by retirement (e.g. 10x one’s salary)

    In order to know that, the third question is (3) How much do I need annually at retirement? (future)

    (4) How do I plan to withdraw? (future)

    These questions are what can keep me up at night regarding retirement.  This post is about answering Q3 and Q4, specifically Q4.

    The answer of how big a nest egg needed is different for everyone, depending how early one start, how much to contribute, their tolerance of risk, and how far away is the retirement date (they call this the time horizon).

    I am going do some hand waving.  Experts estimate we (millenials) need between 1.5 million to 3 million dollars saved up for retirement.  That is a lot of money, especially at the upper range. 

    I agree that if I have that much I will be set.  Many don’t even know if they can save up for 1 million dollars. I think 1 mil is about the ball park for my case.

    There’s also social security for those in the US, which is a government entitlement program. What about it? The prevaling thought is it won’t be enough for retirement and likely won’t be available when my generation is about to retire. But we won’t talk about that for now. We will assume it will still be around.

    A few people have a pension.  We won’t talk about that either. Those have it, would be better off than the rest, because it means, they need to depend less on one’s own savings. However, usually pension like social security is also not enough either (or it can go bankrupt too, which we have seen, such as when Enron went under, it almost took many pensions with it).

    To find how much to save, I used the 4% rule.  Note, we are working backward here.  That you should only withdraw around 4% from your retirement account each year to ensure your savings will last through your retirement. 

     Whatever the dollar amount needed annually at retirement, say $60,000, subtract off what social security or pension plan will provide, say $15,000-20,000 for our optimistic case, $60000-$20000 -> $40,000 (to make the math easy). 

    Then we do some math magic here: 1 / 4% is 25x (inverse of 4% is 25), multiply 25 with the amount you think you need (for our example, it is $40,000 x 25 gives 1,000,000).  I know it’s a lot of math.  At retirement, you will need $1 million because 4% of $1 million will give $40,000.  We were working backward. 

    As long as you have 1,000,000 in the bank (or the retirement account), you can withdraw $40,000 each year.

    For most, this is the ideal case where each year they withdraw 4% from the account and it will grow back by the following year. It’s a money generating machine.

     As long as the growth rate is above 6.2%, money will not run out.  Why 6.2%? 2% for inflation, and 4.2% for recovering the $40,000 taken out. 

    This doesn’t account for what if one year there is less than a 6% growth, or even a negative growth (i.e., a recession). 

    There is always a risk of a recession, putting at risk that the capital would not be able to recover back to 1 million dollars. It is safe to assume every decade, there will be a recession.

    However, know that it would take a period of 25 years of 0% growth to draw down the balance of 1 million to zero (because 25 x 40000 is a million). 

    Someone ran a simulation thousand of times, and 4% rule is good enough to have the money last on majority of the time.

    What I concern about is the 4% rule being too conservative — that I will die with a lot of money left over (like a million dollars or even half a million).  I don’t mind having money left over, but if I could put less into retirement right now and use the money for other things while I am alive, why not.

     Note the following is not be a good idea for most people.  This is my insight. It goes that if you don’t want to die with a lot of money left over, the idea is to draw down enough so when you pass away, you have just right amount. The key assumption is you know exactly when you will die.

    Leaving the assumption aside, the math is pretty easy (at least easier than I have thought).  I have been thinking about this on and off and over the weekend I came across someone who wrote that retirement withdrawal can be considered as a mortgage payment.

      You can use the same loan amortization schedule to calculate the withdrawal amount needed to have the a zero balance left over. Eureka!

    Imagine you have a mortgage of $1,000,000.  The number of years to pay off is the number of years in retirement.  The interest rate is the growth rate (minus inflation to be conservative). The payment would be the retirement withdrawal amount.

    For our example, the retirement term is 30 years, interest rate is 4%, to find payment, I used a financial calculator (or Excel formula), pmt: 4%, 30+1, -1000000, 1 -> $56,855. This is the amount to withdraw per year until the nest egg becomes zero. (It’s a lot of math/financial terms, sorry, but that is the idea of how to determine the withdrawal amount).

    Without social security, $56,000 won’t be enough if one were aiming for $60,000 for retirement. But with income from social security too, it is more than enough (we assume social security can provide 20,000).

    Is this better than the 4% method? No, because it is riskier.  It withdraws more than 4%.  Actually starting at 5.8%, and it increases each year until the balance is reaches zero (withdrawing at 100% on the final year)!

    The cool thing is the balance gets to zero at a predetermined period, and in our example, at the end of 30 (or 29) years (note to self, the off by one error). 

    Why use this way to withdraw?  If one is comfortable with the risk, one can have a lower balance to save up. 

    The question then is how much to save up if I want to withdraw $40,000 per year using this method instead of $56,000. This is just the reverse of how big loan I can take out if I my repayment is $40,000 per year. Excel function: pv(4%, 30+1, -40,000, 0) ~ $703,000.  This means instead of trying to save up to a million, we can save to about $700,000, which is 30% less than 1 million.  This is the answer to question 2.

    As for finding the answers to Q1, one can use a financial calculator.  Search the internet on how to save a million dollars or $700,000, would be bring to a schedule of how much to save per year.

    One can use the pmt formula in Excel again (or any financial calculator), for our example, e.g., i=4, n=30, pv=0, fv=-703000, answer: $12,534 (about $1,000 a month). (Q1)

    Note how high the payment is. For some, this is 15-20% of their income.  This assumes a low interest rate (4%) of return.  Most investors though are aiming for a 7-10 % annual returns by investing from the stock market.  Also the time horizon (period of investment, which is how long before retiring) is longer than 30 years, say 40 years.  This would reduce the amount one need to contribute to retirement. Start early, and put in regularly is the key.

    Summarizing, I don’t recommend calculating withdrawal using the amortization schedule because it is more risky of running out of fund earlier than anticipated.  But it is a way to know, it is possible to have a smaller nest egg and still can have the same amount for withdrawal during retirement.

    My second insight that kept me up this week is a bit embarrassing to describe.  I have not found how other people calculate this. But it came to me like a eureka moment when a friend shared how her coworker passed away right before her retirement. I have wrestled with this for some years (mostly on the math part).

    We all know we won’t live forever and there’s a chance we die before we even retire.  And so what?  How does that factor into how much to save.

    The chance we going to die before retirement date, e.g., age 65, can be estimated with one of those life insurance charts. 

    The thinking is: if we sure 100% we will live beyond 65, then we need the full amount.

    If we know there’s a 50% chance we won’t live past 65, some say we still need the full amount.  I say, we need less.  Maybe we only need to cut back a bit on the savings.

    If we know definitely we are not going live pass 65, then no need to save for retirement. Or maybe still save a little bit, like 5-10%.

    Majority though it is not as extreme as 50% but maybe at 5-10% likelihood we won’t live past 65, I think we should save less than what the actual need is (I would peg 3-5% reduction), because the chance we are going to die before 65 is not zero.  If we live pass the age, we beat the odds, and we should be glad to live with what we have (less), say 5% less in the balance is probably an acceptable tradeoff.

    Also the odds of dying increase each year. So in a sense, we could/should contribute less and less instead of more and more as we head into retirement (note, our tax system seems to encourage people to do the reverse, i.e., to save more to do a “catch-up contribution” as we near the retirement date).  There is also special points in life we our bodies age significantly (such as 50, 60, 70).  I think those are times we should evaluate how much (less) to contribute into the retirement account.

    This is controversal. I am not advocating everyone to avoid doing catch up contributions. However, there might be logical sense to not do so. 

    As for the amount to reduce, I used the expect value (no math is shown here because I don’t want people to follow this idea).  Just putting out here of the broad idea that one should not be in dismay of not having 1.5-3 million saved up, because there are various reasons, we can contribute less and not feel being not adaquate prepared.

    For some, a 5-6% reduction is not worth the risk (plus too much math to arrive here).

    Again, I posted this because of how far my thinking has changed since a few years ago. I will post again maybe in a few years from now on the topic.

  • [659] Mid Maryland 50k

    Rinse and repeat of last year (2024).  I am not going to say this race is my favorite, but it was still a race.  It took place in the middle of winter.  It was as cold ad last year and maybe even colder this year relatively for our area.  I think the wind chill was down in the teens.  Weather is always a bummer for this event.  Why did I do it?  Maybe because there was nothing else to do. I went last year and so kept the tradition alive. The first real race of the year (Red Eye on New Year Day was my first event). This was a few days after of the first weekend of 2025.

    Because it is fun.  Eventually, yes, it became fun.  The race was a great place to catch up with friends.  I went there knowing two of my other friends were going to be there.  I went there again with Caroline. I saw a few others such as Judith and Tom.

    I knew what I was getting into.  Last year we had snow in the middle of the even and then it turned into rain and ended pretty bad weather condition that no runners would have wanted to be outside running. 

    We were a bit fortunate this year that it snowed a couple night before and we had a dry course. The snow/frost was not an issue.  The ground was hard and frozen.  Not slipery but I was always careful.  There were patches of ice here and there. 

    The course was cleared of snow when we started.  The trail was runnable. The cold and wind though was harsh.  I put on many layers of hats, shirts, jackets, pants, gloves, bluffs and everything.  I knew I would be cold out there for close to 8 hours.  Being warm during the run was the key to finish the event.  I’d rather overdressed than underdressed.  I started stripping off my layers eventually and found the right combinations in the middle of the race. It did slow me down and took a lot minutes off the clock putting on and pulling off shirts. 

    I was smarter this year, though unintentionally, I started the first three loops without my hydration pack.  I became thirsty though by the second loop, but the aid station was at most only 5 miles away. 

    I was not running to get a better finishing time than the previous year.  I always like a faster time but it like a pie dream.  I was hoping to just finish, having fun, and enjoying the race.

    It was six loops of 5 miles.  In my mind I thought it was 3 loops of 10 miles before the event.  I did not come into this race as prepared as I was for other races. I thought I would lost count on the numbers of loops in the middle of the race, but ended up I could remember which loop I was on.  I did the first three loops and then I did another three loops, by counting backward after the third loop of how many loops I had left.  Time went by quickly.  

    Originally, I was hoping my friend Jeremy would keep me company but he ran too fast and I was a bit too slow so I lost track of him.  Same with Caroline who outran both of us early on, and I could not run with her.  I decided to take my time and slowly reeled them in.

    The first loop took me about 1:20 (h:m).  I purposely went out slower because I wanted to talk to a few friends.  By second loop, I picked up the pace and finished around 1:10 (h:m).  A lot faster runners and relay people looped me by now.  It didn’t bother me because my speed and theirs were too different.  I was just slow. You just had to step aside and let them pass. 

    I struggled a bit by the third loop and it required some effort to get it in at 1:15. I was secretly wishing I could run a 5 mile under an hour.  It was a wishful thinking.  I was no longer as fast as what I used to be (I used to be able to do a 10k in about 50 ish minutes).  Looking back this is my eighth year since I started running.  My first year, was when I was at my peak and every year has been down hill then. 

    So I just had to accept the fact I am now much slower, but in my mind I was still fast like I was when I first started.

    I caught up to my two friends at the end of the my fourth loop, who had started out faster than me.  Secretly, I wanted to lap them but I knew in order to do that, I had to pass them by second loop, that plan was dashed when it took me too long to catch up to them.  I would have to run twice my current pace to loop them, which was impossible.  One of my friend decided it was too cold to continue.  So I put him in my car to warm him up.  I checked back on him at the next loop.

    The rest of loops were uneventful.  At least now I don’t remember much but was glad to be out on the trail.  I started to notice the trail was getting soggy.  The temperature was warming up but the wind was still strong and cold.  I really had to put some effort in and still my time and pace was sliding.  I was happy to finish the loop and I started the fifth loop and sixth.  My friend was still around so, I told him if he is willing to wait, I will finish my loop in about an hour.  I could not remember much about my fifth or sixth loop.  Loop event kind of do that to you where each loop kind of mesh together with the previous one.  I think I started to catch up to some few other runners, who were still left.  Many already finished.  I ran with some faster people, such as relay people.

    My last loop was all by myself.  Almost everyone had finished by now.  There were maybe one or two runners walking the course.  Some have friends joining them.  I knew I had two hours to do my final loop and so I took my time to walk as much as I could.  I still run on the downhills. 

    I am not too fond of loop courses.  They have their purpose.  Some people love them. It was easier pace myself on a loop.  You know exactly how much time it will take after the first loop.  Also, the trail becomes more familar the more loops you do.  You have the same aid station at the end of each loop.  It makes planing a drop bag, also the logistics of getting back to the car easier if you happen to quit.  We had our car right at the start, so we went by it each time. 

    I had a great weekend and it was a good workout.  We saw the last runner finished and we left around 5 pm and called it a day.  My time was 7:11:56. This year was not as exciting as the last year event (at least that my impression).  I reread my last year report, I had fun in the mud.  This year’s challenge was the cold and I overcame it.

  • [658] Maryland Height

    So much here I did not know.  I got a chance to hike up Maryland Height the next day after JFK 50. My friend who ran in it was recovering well.  People wonder, how can one still move after running a 50 mile.  We just do.  We love trails.  I was trying to get a short run in before the weekend is over.  It was to be ready for the Devil Dog. My friend and probably had the same idea to take advantage of the nice weather to do some trail running in the area.

    I have been up there before to look over Harpers Ferry.  It is an amazing sight no matter how many times I have been up there.

    Apparently, it was also a good training run location, if only I have an annual pass for the National Park parking.

    Theorectically, I could park at Weaverton cliff and run there, or Bunswick, because I am an ultra runner and I can do the distance (maybe about 4 miles from parking to trailhead, 8-9 miles round trip). If I need more climbing, I could climb up Weverton Cliff a few times.

    That what we did.  We started at Weverton Cliff before sunrise only to find I did not bring a headlamp.  So we waited for dawn in the parking lot.  It was also too cold for me to run that early.  Once it was light enough to see, we climbed.  We had a long workout that morning running back on the portion of JFK 50 course on the Appalachian Trail.   The AT always has plenty of hill climbs and steep descents. Due to time constraint and also we did not pack much for food, maybe only a candy bar or some cookies, we took a break for brunch back in Boobsboro maybe about 20-30 min drive. It was too much to do a run to the Maryland Height too without a proper meal. Also we were out of time because we had to move out from our  hotel room by noonish before we could get back on the trail in the afternoon.

    There is also a lower parking lot for the AT hike (maybe at Loundon Height), but that gets filled up fast.

    Anyway, a friend showed me a place she usually parks on Sandyhook Road, just before it turns into Harper Ferry Road.  It was kind of iffy because, there’s a sign says tow away zone, no parking. Loading only.  Ok, we did a four-hour loading there and, 3 more cars joined us at doing so call loading. They proved me wrong that the tiny strip can only fit two cars. I guess, we were lucky that we didn’t get a ticket or the car being towed away. I don’t recommend others to try this, unless they are willing to risk their cars not being there after a long hike. Better parking would be at the National Park Parking and they have buses to drive you where you need to go (mostly into the historical town and then you can hike over).

    There was much more to see on Maryland Height.  First we had many a mile of hike on the C&O Canal Towpath from where we parked to the trailhead.

    After the canal there was a climb, a very long climb maybe a mile, to a place where the trail split.  Red trail is to the Overlook, where everybody goes to.  In the past, I thought that was it. I forgot there is a trail that continue onward up. We went the less traveled path before ending up at the overlook.

    The Overlook is definitely worth seeing.  In the past, I think our mistake was to hike to the Overlook first, which is still a hard climb, so we were tired by then and did not want to continue up the mountain afterward.  So for so many times I have been on Maryland Height, I have completely forgot there is more. I always have gone there with friends so we always considered the group ability instead of just myself.  I of course could climb the distance many times over.  Some do use the loop for ultra marathon training.

    On the left, there is a much smaller trail about 4 mile loop, that will take one to the true pinnacle of Maryland Height.  There was some ruins of the old fortification during the Civil War up at the top.  It was definitely worthy of a visit. There is one spot where you can see 360 view around.  It is where they place the big gun up there during the Civil War.

    The trail though is rocky and technical.  For ultra runners, rocks are not an issue, but for everyday folks, this is a good workout and if not a pretty hard hike. 

    Along the way, there are placards about the Civil War history.  Apparantly, the Confederate took the hill, and led to the taking of Harper Ferry.  I think 2000 soldiers held off a much bigger 12000 Union soldiers on this hill.  They were able to haul a 10000 lbs gun up the hill.  How it was done was beyond imagination.  It was quite a feat.

    The trail was improved and repaired  and reblazed it since the last time my friend told me, so it is impossible to get lost.  There are signages and such.

    Harper Ferry, Maryland Height is definitely a good training ground for me if I ever go back. Parking is a problem.  I do need a NP annual pass, so I could park at the NPS Visitor Center.

    So much more happened that day.  The Bathroom.  At the end of our hike, we met two runners on the C&O Canal asking if we know there is a bathroom facility nearby.  They are females.  I laughed.  I turned to my friend maybe she can show them where.  They got the hint.  There’s none that I know of unless of course back in town or at the NPS parking lot, which was like 3-4 miles away.  Not that far but far enough.  I don’t remember if I ever needed to go that day.  I probably did. I ran a hundred miles on the canal before.  I don’t know what I did. We also don’t drink that much so we could hold it in. There’s must be porta johns along the way.  Either hold it in until there’s a facility or do it discretely as a runner. It is one thing we don’t talk about.

    I remember weird things. There was time still before evening, so we sat near our car looking at the river before sunset.  It got too cold then when we were not moving.  We called it a day.

  • [657] Boyers Furnace 40 Mile

    It was going to be a nasty winter run. Cold, wet and a lot of rocks.

    Initially 90+ people signed up but ended up about 50 runners started.  Still a lot of runners, but 50 was usually the size for this event.

    40 miler is no joke.  30 mile or 50k is what people could do.  10 miles more put it in a different category.  This one was like a 50 miler.

    It was my 2nd year doing it (last year, here, I had a better write up than this year).  I was looking foward to it.  There were several friends signed up and I was hoping to have a good time with them out on the trail. The MMT gang.

    Weather was a disrupter and a few of those I was hoping to see could not make it, which was fine.  They messaged me that they couldn’t make it.  A run was still a run and I went out to have a good time even if running by myself. I was hoping a good strong run, but I ended up walking most of the course like last year and ran maybe for 6 miles in the afternoon to avoid the cutoff.

    I went out the night before.  I was not the only one because by the time I arrived at Camp Roosevelt, there were a few other cars camping out too.  We carcamped and secured our parking spots for the morning since the lot was small.  There was no way to fit 90 cars in there but we usually do fit everyone, not sure how, but people are creative.

    I woke up while it was still dark.  I would not say the night was comfortable one but I was able to sleep on and off and was fresh when morning came.  It rained during the night so, I could not really sleep on the flatbed of my truck or set up a tent in the woods (well technically, I could, but did not want to do it in the rain). I arrived at camp near midnight and I did not want to spend too much time fidgeting with a tent setup and I wanted to fall asleep as soon as possible. I opted for the back of the car.  Sleeping in the back seat was passable. I was smart enough to bring my pillow and a blanket. Those two are my comfort items and would allow me to sleep anywhere.

    A few showed up very early the next morning. My friend Mordy came from Ohio and parked next to me. We had a kind of catch up on things during the early hours as we waited for all the rest to show up.  Eventually, more showed up. We started the run on time at 7:30.

    Rain stopped.  I saw Jeff P started early, he said he started at 6:45. He believed he was a slower runner and asked for an early start. I was hoping to catch him on my run.  I did not see him until the final 9 miles.

    I wanted to walk in the beginning, so I was in the back of the pack walking with Ram and Tracy.   I ran with Tracy couple times at the MMT 100.  Ram was my pacer (safety runner) for Old Dominion 100 this year, plus an unofficial pacer at MMT before, last year I think.  He saved my race at Camp Roosevelt that year. We chit chat by recalling prior years’ races we had together.

    First overlook a mile into the race with Wayne. I was planning to run with him but he was way too fast for me, just like last year. We made a quick stop for pictures before rain clouds and fog rolled in

    The first 17 miles we had no aid stations so we carried all that we needed.  Surprising it was not that hard in term of how much water we needed to carry.  This was somethingthat worried me last year. I drank maybe half of my 1.5 L pack.  I ate a few candy bars.  I arrived at Veach Gap, our first aid station, feeling great.

    I wanted to be there earlier but ended arriving around 12:30, probably half an hour later than last year.  We had a good aid station with hot food and all.  Close to a dozen people were there and two long tables full of food.  My friend Jeremy, who initially was going to run with me, but instead came out to the aid station to cheer.  I ate some food.  They had hot soup. Then we set out again. 

    A flashback, decending on Veach brought back my memories of the Old Dominion 100 Run.  Now, in the day time, I could see what the trail actually looks like.  It was not that bad.  It was gravelly and where you kind of be careful of where you are stepping but it was not too technical. During the Old Dominion, I felt this section was terrible besides Sherman Gap. I was waiting for Ram to rerun this section with him (also I was just up on Sherman Gap two days ago).

    The next section was 6 miles on the roads.  We had to climb up to Woodstock Tower.  The section is similar to the Old Dominion Run. I believe during OD 100, we came down the other way, but now we were climbing up. Ram was tired and he could no longer keep up with me.  I did not wait for him.  He said, during Old Dominion I was running while he was walking, now today we were in reverse position, he was running while I walked by him. The course again brought back memories of my Old Dominion Run.  It was good to see the course now in day time and to have a refresher.

    Kate, a seemingly fast runner who passed us earlier on Orange while we were still on the ridge before descending to Veach, told me she would drop out at Woodstock and asked me to let the people at the aid station know.

    I outran the people around me (just one guy, Bill?, he did the Devil Dog this year) so I got to the aid station first at Woodstock. I passed message from Kate to the aid station’s captain, who then told us that no one was allowed to drop at Woodstock since all the volunteer’s cars were full.  I am guessing then Kate took a ride back with a random stranger happened to be there or she made a call for someone to pick her up. 

    I expected the run from Woodstock to Edinburg to be long and tough.  The afternoon was not bad.  Timewise, I left Woodstock about the same time as the previous year, at 2:30.  I made to Edinburg in two and half hour by 5 pm, half hour before the cutoff.  This was the exact time as last year. We had one of the best meals of the day once arrived.   I might have stayed there for whole 15 minutes before heading off. It was not a race, so might as well enjoy some good food.

    We had 9 miles left, which I did not know at the time and I was guessing at most 6 miles were left. It was a long climb up to Moreland Gap and then a long descent on Moreland Road down.  I finally caught up with Larry and Jeff on this stretch.  We together with two other runners (Morali and another dude who did not talk), plus Larry’s dog, Max, finished the last stretch together.  There were only about six of us left in the race at the time. It was good we made it back to Roosevelt.  It took me 12 hours, about 20 mins slower than last year.

    I sat at the fire ring for an hour or so waiting for the last few runners to make it back.  I was surprised I passed Charles, who know when, and he and his friend came in with the sweeper, Erin.  Erin said he did this for the last five years.  We then helped break down the aid station and called it a night. 

    This year was unlike the previous year, there were only couple of us left at the end.  Many had finished many hours before and left. I helped put out the camp fire. Q gave me a whole lot of water, maybe 5 gal. I made sure all the ambers were put out.  It was kind of sad, because the fire was so strong earlier, but we had to leave, so putting it out was a must.

    The day was good.  I was relatively dry even though we were rained on briefly.  Feet had some blisters but that was on me of not clearly the grits from my shoes. I did not feel tired at the time, but the body took a beating.  The next day, it felt like I did some hard training, because I could hardly crawl out of bed. This was the kind of runs I love.

    Another lookout point.  Fog and clouds eventually enveloped us. I loved it. We hardly could see the aid stations ahead until we were on top of it. Wayfinding was hard because (though the trail was lightly marked) the fog made turns invisible to see.  I was glad I was with some experienced runners toward the end who know the area.